I have been exposed to the subject of statistics through my school, undergraduate and postgraduate years. Hence, I have this strange suspicion about what the numbers tell. Whether it is a government tomtomming its achievements on the economic front or exit pollsters coming up with poll predictions, I take all these prognostications with a generous pinch of salt. There is still some doubt about whether the authorship of the phrase “Lies, damned lies and statistics” can be attributed to Benjamin Disraeli or Mark Twain. Regardless, I am of the firm belief that the numbers that determine the statistics must be stripped to the bone to arrive at reasonable conclusions, untainted by hyperbole.
Which is where I have issues with the recent working paper put out by the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council (EAC-PM) on the status of the Muslim community in India during the period 1950 to 2015 (referred to hereafter as the Report), drawing on country-wise estimates of religious demographics available for 1950 and 2015 from the Religious Characteristics of States Dataset Project – Demographics v. 2.0 (RCS-Dem) published by the Association of Religion Data Archives in the year 2019. The estimates differ from the Census of India figures for 1951 and 2011 only by a couple of percentage points. The Report has reached the conclusion that “…in India, the share of the majority Hindu population decreased by 7.82 percent between 1950 and 2015 (from 84.68 percent to 78.06 percent). The share of Muslim population in 1950 was 9.84 percent and increased to 14.09 percent in 2015 – a 43.15 percent increase in their share.” The increase and decrease in the Muslim and Hindu populations is shown in terms of the percentage change in the respective percentage shares, taking the percentages of 1950 as the base.
This is where the problem arises. Anyone with even a rudimentary understanding of statistics would know that an increase from a low base by a certain number would give a greater percentage increase than a corresponding decrease by the same number from a much higher base. For example, a rise from 5 to 10 is a 100 percent increase while a reduction from 95 to 90 is only a 5.26 percent decrease. Had the Report used the same yardstick of increase in percentage share for the Sikh and Buddhist populations during the same period, the increases would have been 49.19 percent for the former (1.24 percent to 1.85 percent) (the Report wrongly gives the percentage change as 6.58) and a humongous 1520 percent for the latter.
One could have excused this cavalier jugglery with numbers if the conclusions of the Report had not been used by spokespersons close to the BJP to, on the one hand, glorify the approach to support of minority (specifically Muslim) populations over the first six and a half decades and, on the other hand, to repeat ad nauseam the slogan “Hindu khatre mein hain” .
Sudesh Verma[1] has fallen into the familiar trap of equating the change in percentage shares of Hindu and Muslim populations between 1950 and 2015 with the change in percentages of absolute Hindu and Muslim populations between 1950 and 2015. He then plays on the usual fears of the Muslim population overrunning the Hindu population, apparently oblivious of the 2011 Census figures, which show a Hindu population of 980 million and a Muslim population of 172 million. The usual reasons for the higher growth of the Muslim population are trotted out: “rapid reproduction, illegal infiltration encouraged by vested interests and conversion.” The latter two reasons can by no means contribute to any explosive increase in Muslim population. The first reason has also been tempered by the falling birth rates in the Muslim population — the total fertility rate (TFR) of the Muslim and Hindu populations stood at 4.4 and 3.3 respectively during the the National Family Health Survey-1 (NFHS-1) in 1990-91; the TFR came down to 2.6 for the Muslim population and 2.1 for the Hindu population in NFHS-4 (2015-16). As the TFR differentials narrow over time, it would be the height of misinformation to claim that the Hindu population would be overwhelmed in numbers by minority, especially Muslim, populations, when the numbers clearly show that the twain shall never meet.
The Report highlights that “…India is one of the few countries which has a legal definition of minorities and provides constitutionally protected rights for them.” It also refers to the progressive policies and inclusive institutions that are reflected in the growing number of minority populations within India. Significantly, it observes “Given its plural, liberal and democratic nature, India has continued its civilizational tradition of harboring persecuted populations from several countries over the last six decades.”: this, even though India does not have a clear-cut domestic policy or law for refugees and is not a signatory to the 1951 UN Refugee Convention and the 1967 Protocol.
It is ironic that the Report and the article by Surya Prakash[2] should speak in glowing terms of India’s plural, democratic ethos which has, in their view, provided a conducive environment for the growth of minority populations. The period from independence to 2014 (which is the focus period of the Report) has often been disparaged by the current ruling dispensation, with frequent references at the top political levels, even recently, to the appeasement of minorities and infiltration by, and conversion of the majority community population by, minority communities. It is unfortunate that even sections of the higher judiciary appear to subscribe to this distorted worldview[3] .
Nor has the growth in Muslim population been seen in terms of the measures that are needed to bring down the growth rate of that population: these include raising literacy and education levels of women, income earning opportunities, healthcare and outreach to promote family planning practices. It needs to be emphasised repeatedly that minority communities prosper because of constitutional guarantees, proactive social and economic policies and a fraternal environment in society, not because of the magnanimity of the majority community.
This is where governments need to walk the talk in creating a conducive environment for minority communities to realise their potential. Mere assertions of the democratic rights of all citizens (including minorities) are not enough. Union and state governments need to relook at legislations on cattle slaughter and anti-conversion, which have become convenient tools used by vigilante groups to create problems for minorities. Governments also need to firmly rein in the cancer of hate speech and avoid executive actions, like the bulldozer raj, that seem to largely target specific communities. India is a melting pot of many races over many millennia, a fact recognised and embedded in constitutional provisions. Let us, as a nation, not distinguish between people on the basis of religion or any other social marker. In the final analysis, we are all part of the human race, best exemplified in the lyrics of Sahir Ludhianvi:
तू हिन्दु बनेगा ना मुसलमान बनेगा
इन्सान की औलाद है इन्सान बनेगा.
[1] Sudesh Verma: India First – Rising Muslim Population: Arise Before It’s Too Late (News18.com, 11 May 2024)
[2] A. Surya Prakash: The changing face of religious demography (New Indian Express, 23 May 2024)
[3] Prateek Chakraborty: Majority population will become minority one day: High Court on conversions (India Today, 2 July 2024)
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